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Ecological Transition and Economic Growth: The New Scenarios from ASviS

According to the 2025 Spring Report, Italy could increase its GDP by 8.4% by 2050 by focusing on sustainability, innovation, and social equity.

author: Internal Editorial Team
14-05-2025
2 mins to read

Sustainability as a Driver of Growth

In a global context marked by environmental, social, and economic challenges, the ecological transition is no longer an option but a strategic necessity. This is reaffirmed by the new 2025 Spring Report published by ASviS – Italian Alliance for Sustainable Development, in collaboration with Oxford Economics.

The document sends a clear and strong message: investing in sustainability pays off. According to the projections, Italy could see a GDP increase of 8.4% by 2050 compared to the business-as-usual scenario, if it adopts a development model focused on innovation, digitalization, the green economy, and social inclusion.

The Study’s Figures: Sustainability = Growth

The model developed by Oxford Economics compares two trajectories:

Baseline scenario (business-as-usual): Italy continues along its current path, with minimal intervention on climate, social issues, and governance;
Sustainable scenario: the country adopts policies aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), focusing on green investments, energy transition, education, research, and development.

The outcome? In the sustainable scenario:

GDP grows by 8.4% more than in the baseline scenario by 2050;
Employment rises, particularly in sectors linked to clean energy, sustainable construction, digital technologies, and personal care;
Quality of life improves and climate risk is reduced.

Strategic Levers for Italy

The ASviS Report identifies several key strategic levers to make the transition not only sustainable but also economically advantageous:

Strengthening green industrial policies, supporting companies that invest in low environmental impact technologies;
Accelerating digitalization, including in SMEs and public administration;
Investing in education, training, and research, to bridge skills gaps;
Transparent and participatory governance, oriented toward long-term goals.

Implications for Businesses and Investors

For Italian businesses, this analysis represents a valuable opportunity. Integrating ESG principles (Environmental, Social and Governance) into business models not only enhances corporate reputation but also results in competitive advantages, risk reduction, and easier access to financing.

Those who invest in sustainability today not only contribute to the fight against climate change but also strategically position themselves to capture the economic trends of the coming decades.

Conclusions

The 2025 Spring Report offers a concrete, data-driven vision: sustainability is a winning choice, even economically. Italy has the chance to lead a structural transformation that can generate well-being, employment, and competitiveness. But to do so, it will take bold political choices, public-private collaboration, and a long-term vision.

Start now! Discover green investment opportunities on our platform Gobidreal.it

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